Why Your Team Beat My Team Or Why My Team Beat Your Team

With the awesome power of hindsight you can mold NFL stats into whatever shape you'd like, and today I did just that.

In this case I was trying to find a stat that accurately measured how well a team performed last season. Common sense says that the average PPG against the average of P-Allowed PG would be a good indicator. Turns out it's a very good indicator.

I was actually shocked at how well it corresponded with the playoff team's records. Check it (teams listed in order of finish at end of regular season):


{{I have no idea why this white space is here. I can't fix it. So gets scrolling, dammit.}}




{{Let's just call it a Michael Irvin coke break}}

	PPG	PAPG	Differential
San Diego	30.8	18.9	+11.9
Chicago	26.7	15.9	+10.8
Baltimore	22.1	12.6	+9.5
Indy	26.7	22.5	+4.2
New England	24.1	14.8	+9.3
New Orleans	25.8	20.1	+5.7
Philly	24.9	20.5	+4.4
NY Jets	19.8	18.4	+1.4
Seattle	20.9	21.3	-1
Dallas	26.6	21.9	+4.7
KC	20.7	19.7	+1
NY Giants	22.2	22.6	-0.4

As you can see Seattle over-performed again and squeaked bye in a crappy division.

Jacksonville had some tough breaks this year. Sure, they didn't man-up when it counted, but they managed to man-up enough o compile a pretty healthy scoring differential, just not the W's that usually accompany it.

Their line:
23.2     17.1     +6.1
Which is better than half the playoff teams.


AS FOR the Redskins:
19.2     23.5     -4.3
Ouch.

It could've been worse though,
14.9     22.2     -7.3
I could be a Browns fan.

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